In just a few short months, Americans will decide who they want to be president. Speculation abounds, but a better read on who is more likely to win — a futures market in politics — may be found at sites like Tradesports.com. Futures markets, where people bet on results of various outcomes, can often predict events better than other forms of analysis. For instance, betting pools on election results are often better predictors than polls, and options markets can out-perform research analysts on predicting stock prices.
All sovereign nations claim to have a monopoly on violence. Ours is also seeking to have a monopoly on vice. Gambling is bad unless it's done through a government agency.
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Want To Bet on the Presidential Election?
Posted by: Sonia Arrison July 23, 2004 06:30 AMIn just a few short months, Americans will decide who they want to be president. Speculation abounds, but a better read on who is more likely to win — a futures market in politics — may be found at sites like Tradesports.com. Futures markets, where people bet on results of various outcomes, can often predict events better than other forms of analysis. For instance, betting pools on election results are often better predictors than polls, and options markets can out-perform research analysts on predicting stock prices.