As we roll to the end of the year, events continue to take place that are changing dramatically the technologies and environments we live in. Last week, Microsoft had a coming-out party for Vista — but only for the business market. While most feel it can’t ramp up in business until 2008, there is clearly massive pressure building to accelerate adoption in 2007, and we probably should discuss that. In addition, Sony had a massive executive shake-up right after some of us — well me, actually — started talking about Blu-ray losing out to HD DVD.
Rob, I don't know upon what you're basing your estimates, but both this story and your story on TGDaily have ridiculously high estimates for HD-DVD Xbox 360 add-on sales. 20% of all Xbox owners? Not a chance. There is no possible way Toshiba/Microsoft could have secured that many blue diodes, given that Sony has locked up all production from their facility and Toshiba has claimed that their supplier would be able to provide 150K/month once production is at full capacity (which no one believes has happened). Further, if HD-DVD add-on sales were anywhere near PS3 sales don't you think Microsoft would have issued a press release to build momentum for the format? My guess is Microsoft produced a very modest number of players (less than 100K), and will sell many of them. Nonetheless, PS3 sales will far exceed HD-DVD players of any form, and, more importantly, PS3's will continue to sell out, probably through 2007, guaranteeing millions of Blu-ray players in the marketplace by next year at this time. Whether there are millions by January 2007 or by June 2007 really doesn't matter in the long run, clearly they will be in peoples' homes.
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Vista Hits, Sony Kills Blu-ray, the Birth of Megatasking
Posted by: Rob Enderle December 4, 2006 04:00 AMAs we roll to the end of the year, events continue to take place that are changing dramatically the technologies and environments we live in. Last week, Microsoft had a coming-out party for Vista — but only for the business market. While most feel it can’t ramp up in business until 2008, there is clearly massive pressure building to accelerate adoption in 2007, and we probably should discuss that. In addition, Sony had a massive executive shake-up right after some of us — well me, actually — started talking about Blu-ray losing out to HD DVD.
My guess is Microsoft produced a very modest number of players (less than 100K), and will sell many of them. Nonetheless, PS3 sales will far exceed HD-DVD players of any form, and, more importantly, PS3's will continue to sell out, probably through 2007, guaranteeing millions of Blu-ray players in the marketplace by next year at this time. Whether there are millions by January 2007 or by June 2007 really doesn't matter in the long run, clearly they will be in peoples' homes.