Car residual prices are collapsing, based on an alert that crossed my desk last week, and it struck me that we haven’t considered much the secondary impacts of having self-driving cars, and the changes that will result from turning automobiles into four-wheeled elevators. Many industry players are treating self-driving cars much like cruise control: a nice-to-have option that will make driving much easier and safer. There are a lot of industries that will be impacted by this, though, both positively and negatively.
The second industrial revolution already happened.
here are more details about the effect self-driving cars will have on different industries and markets (especially trade and real estate) https://tranio.com/world/spotlight/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/ And they will also let people travel and work remotely non-stop living in self-driving homes
When someone uses the code words "religious right" they are only taking opportunity to hit against a perceived opponent. In this case your assumptions were wrong or at least misguided. Cloning humans for body parts is not only a universally bad thing all religions, but to most people in general. Movies have been made on that despotic story ark.
Most religions, including the "religious right" are in favor of using stem cells derived from a person's body to "grow" organs. You will find the "religious right" in agreement with you on the need to champion organ growing, but not on cloning humans as body parts. I don't think your intent was to identify an actual issue, but take opportunity to smack the "religious right". Your prejudice is showing.
"but with 35K deaths attributed to them each year in the U.S., car accidents have been a huge source of organs for those who need them"
Is this some sort of joke? Maybe those 35K people could use their own organs. That was really poor taste. The rest of that section is filled with speculation.
You might want to consider the difference in conditions between the (Large) Cities and the Hinterland. I suspect your speculations/predictions are quite accurate for the latter but may be reversed for the former. A key factor may be the relative populations of the two? An intriguing test gedanken may be a city with a significant commuter population such as Washington.
I live in a city where people don't use Uber. It is a heavily populated urban area and Uber just isn't making any head way here. For those outside of the city, getting to the grocery or shopping areas is quite a hike. For me, I need my car since I drive 250 - 350 miles for work sometimes or to see relatives. It would be too expensive to have an Uber driver take me there.
Here is my input on the self-driving car topic. As long as the cars have a manual override, we will still have accidents. There are plenty of new drivers who own snazzy cars with beefed up engines and they like to speed on the highways. I have seen some who play cat and mouse with each other. That type of behavior will never end as long as the car symbolizes strength, virility, and is a tool to show off to others.
If the price of the self-driving car is affordable, people will buy them. If they are any higher than manual only cars, people won't. We saw that occur after the gas crisis of the 70s. Gas prices went up and foreign car manufactures saw a demand for more fuel efficient cars in the US. But more fuel efficient cars were much pricier than those which weren't. So many people couldn't afford them.
So I agree with your argument that we will not need traffic officers, deaths will go down, and media consumption will go up as long as everyone has a self-driving car and people don't turn on the manual override to drive it themselves.
1) You forgot all the drivers (taxis, deliveries, chauffeurs, etc) that will be displaced.
2) Not everyone uses automobiles for just personal transport and groceries. Cars and trucks will still need to be privately owned if only be small business owners such as repairmen, handymen, gardners, janitors, etc. Anyone that needs to carry tools and supplies for their services.
Rural and sparsely populated areas will probably require private ownership as well. While the costs of short urban trips should be cost effective, "renting" a car for a road trip would probably be exorbitant.
You make great points.
Huge market realignments are coming.
Devastating to our current economy.
I wonder how coverage will be.
I think rural areas will be a big challenge for self driving vehicles.
I wonder the affect on Freight lines.
Classic car market will die.
Performance vehicles will not attract buyers.
Service companies will need autonomy.
Banning cars that are not self driving will be a tough sell.
Once self driving is the norm, we will lose all our reasons to learn how to navigate from one location from another. Who needs directions?
The "grid" will be a hackers Holy Grail!
Another concern is already here.
Many new car drivers are confused already.
I was in an Uber last year. It was definitely a Kia, a Sorento, I think. My driver thought he already had a self driving car!
He was using the "lane assist" feature and was not holding the wheel!
WOW
Parking garages, parking meters, truck stops, car dealerships, drive-in movies, and car washes will disappear. More land for development will open up - think of your local shopping mall and all that parking.
City revenues will be unable to rely on parking tickets, speeding tickets, DUIs, and red light cameras. Toll roads and tolls will probably increase to make up the difference. Traffic court will be rare. Eventually driver's ed will be phased out. Having an actual driver's license instead of just plain ID will be rare. Fewer state troopers, traffic cops, and meter maids will be needed.
Delivery services will increase - why would you go round trip to the grocery, when you could have a one-way car delivering? Or why would you order up a car to go round trip to McDonald's, when you could have it delivered?
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The Massive Unintended Consequences of Self-Driving Cars
Posted by: Rob Enderle May 8, 2017 10:28 AMCar residual prices are collapsing, based on an alert that crossed my desk last week, and it struck me that we haven’t considered much the secondary impacts of having self-driving cars, and the changes that will result from turning automobiles into four-wheeled elevators. Many industry players are treating self-driving cars much like cruise control: a nice-to-have option that will make driving much easier and safer. There are a lot of industries that will be impacted by this, though, both positively and negatively.
Most religions, including the "religious right" are in favor of using stem cells derived from a person's body to "grow" organs. You will find the "religious right" in agreement with you on the need to champion organ growing, but not on cloning humans as body parts. I don't think your intent was to identify an actual issue, but take opportunity to smack the "religious right". Your prejudice is showing.
Is this some sort of joke? Maybe those 35K people could use their own organs. That was really poor taste. The rest of that section is filled with speculation.
Here is my input on the self-driving car topic. As long as the cars have a manual override, we will still have accidents. There are plenty of new drivers who own snazzy cars with beefed up engines and they like to speed on the highways. I have seen some who play cat and mouse with each other. That type of behavior will never end as long as the car symbolizes strength, virility, and is a tool to show off to others.
If the price of the self-driving car is affordable, people will buy them. If they are any higher than manual only cars, people won't. We saw that occur after the gas crisis of the 70s. Gas prices went up and foreign car manufactures saw a demand for more fuel efficient cars in the US. But more fuel efficient cars were much pricier than those which weren't. So many people couldn't afford them.
So I agree with your argument that we will not need traffic officers, deaths will go down, and media consumption will go up as long as everyone has a self-driving car and people don't turn on the manual override to drive it themselves.
2) Not everyone uses automobiles for just personal transport and groceries. Cars and trucks will still need to be privately owned if only be small business owners such as repairmen, handymen, gardners, janitors, etc. Anyone that needs to carry tools and supplies for their services.
Rural and sparsely populated areas will probably require private ownership as well. While the costs of short urban trips should be cost effective, "renting" a car for a road trip would probably be exorbitant.
Huge market realignments are coming.
Devastating to our current economy.
I wonder how coverage will be.
I think rural areas will be a big challenge for self driving vehicles.
I wonder the affect on Freight lines.
Classic car market will die.
Performance vehicles will not attract buyers.
Service companies will need autonomy.
Banning cars that are not self driving will be a tough sell.
Once self driving is the norm, we will lose all our reasons to learn how to navigate from one location from another. Who needs directions?
The "grid" will be a hackers Holy Grail!
Another concern is already here.
Many new car drivers are confused already.
I was in an Uber last year. It was definitely a Kia, a Sorento, I think. My driver thought he already had a self driving car!
He was using the "lane assist" feature and was not holding the wheel!
WOW
City revenues will be unable to rely on parking tickets, speeding tickets, DUIs, and red light cameras. Toll roads and tolls will probably increase to make up the difference. Traffic court will be rare. Eventually driver's ed will be phased out. Having an actual driver's license instead of just plain ID will be rare. Fewer state troopers, traffic cops, and meter maids will be needed.
Delivery services will increase - why would you go round trip to the grocery, when you could have a one-way car delivering? Or why would you order up a car to go round trip to McDonald's, when you could have it delivered?