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ECT News Community   »   MacNewsWorld Talkback   »   Re: iOS vs. WinPho: 2 Visions of the Future



Re: iOS vs. WinPho: 2 Visions of the Future
Posted by: Chris Maxcer 2011-03-31 15:49:06
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If two large companies create a marriage out of desperation and throw in $1 billion dowry, can it not only survive but also thrive? According to a recent IDC forecast report, the answer is yes: The Microsoft and Nokia sweetheart deal in which Nokia will build smartphones running Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 will result in a second-place market share position by 2015, eclipsing Apple's iOS. Android, which is the projected smartphone OS market share leader in 2011, will continue its rampage and own 45.4 percent of the market share in 2015 -- according to IDC, of course.


5 points
Posted by: ViewRoyal 2011-04-09 08:56:25 In reply to: Chris Maxcer
The first 5 points actually are good reasons why WP& will have a difficult time succeeding.

1. "While it's hard to find real sales figures": There is a reason why Microsoft (who always like to bring up sales figures) and the manufacturers of WP7 phones are not releasing numbers. They are just not selling very well. There may be sell-in numbers which inflate the actual sales of a product, but so far there have been no sell-through figures (actual sales of WP7 phones to users).

2."After a slumber, it finally seems as if Microsoft understands that it needs a viable (and popular) mobile phone OS.": "Slumber" is an understatement. It's more like they have been comatose. WP7 is an early preview (lacking many features) of what an iPhone or Android competitor should have been 3 years ago. But WP7 is no where near as mature, well-supported, or loved as Android or iOS.

3. "That means there are lots of new customers out there." Those customers are either people who have owned Android or iOS phones and are upgrading, or those who are well aware of the immersive ecosystem that those operating systems already have in place and are not willing to experiment with an unproven OS.

4. "Never mind that Nokia was recently failing to capture even a sliver of U.S. smartphone mindshare": Nokia is one of the largest mobile phone manufacturers in the world, but the vast majority of the phones they sell are low-end "dumbphones". Their share of the smartphone market is tiny, and it has been reducing in size each year. If Microsoft was smarter, they would have teamed up with HTC or Samsung. But, as the saying goes, two turkeys don't make an eagle.

5. "Four years is a long time. Microsoft may come up with some seriously awesome business integration.": It's much too late for WP7 to try becoming a preferred business phone. IT departments don't mandate which phones employees must use, as they did in the bad old days. Modern businesses now allow employees to use their own phones, or to purchase the phone that they feel most comfortable with. Because of this, there won't likely be many employees choosing WP7 phones for themselves.

I agree Windows-Nokia will sell tons
Posted by: hembreeder 2011-04-08 12:41:33 In reply to: Chris Maxcer
However, it won't matter much to Apple. They will cement the top end and make more money than ever.

You missed a risk to WinPho
Posted by: daboochmeister 2011-04-06 08:27:22 In reply to: Chris Maxcer
There's still the risk that if the MS-Nokia partnership matures, other WinPho makers will withdraw from the market. My gut feeling is that existing handset makers who have released (or have in the pipeline) WP7 devices won't abort - splitting their bets, in case WP7 takes off, makes complete sense - but it wouldn't be surprising to see other potential OEMs back off from nascent plans to enter the fray.

I say "if" the partnership matures, because afaik, they haven't even consummated the nuptials yet, it's all just plans at this point. No?

Assumptions
Posted by: melgross 2011-04-03 14:58:21 In reply to: Chris Maxcer
that Nokia will pick up sales automatically is where this prediction is coming from. But will that happen? Why is it assumed that WP7 will do better outside of its home market in the USA? It's failing here. Marketshare of both Win Mobile and WP7 continue to fall at a good clip. This is despite MS's marketing muscle.

We have an OS, that while good enough, and different enough, isn't better than anything else out there, just different in some ways. That's just not compelling enough.

Can Nokia make the difference? They make high quality phones, but not interesting ones. Will WP7 change that enough for people to desire them? That's an unknown at this point in time. There may be people who actively don't want a WP7 phone from Nokia. They may go to Android or iOS instead.
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