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ECT News Community   »   E-Commerce Times Talkback   »   Re: A Dynamic Moment for E-tailing

Re: A Dynamic Moment for E-tailing
Posted by: Paul A. Greenberg 2001-09-22 08:43:36
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When they write the definitive history book about the evolution of electronic commerce,
2001 may emerge as a pivotal year in the industry's growth.

That may sound surprising, particularly since the year so far has seen a bunch of dot-coms
dying on the vine, not to mention general skepticism among consumers, investors and
industry observers as to where and when growth will begin again.

Re: A Dynamic Moment for E-tailing
Posted by: Mike 2001-09-24 13:24:47 In reply to: Paul A. Greenberg
My best guess is that given recent events, the decrease in consumer confidence (which will certainly go even lower), and the recession that is inevitable, there will be a significant decrease in spending online. Say 10%.

The biggest pure-play retailers are Amazon, Travelocity and Expedia. Amazon will certainly see decreases in sales given their products compete with the large discount retailers, who now have much improved online pressences. Not much chance to meet the EBITDA promise made by Jeff, unfortunately. Travelocity and Expedia will do very poorly due to the massive decrease in travel spending.

Most of the rest of the public pure-play crowd - Bluefly, Alloy, GlobalSports, FTD, etc... - are just too small to really matter at this time. The private pure-plays - well, unless they are profitable, this could be it for many of them.

That leaves the rest of the e-tailers being brick-and-clicks. Their businesses are fine - they are just getting their feet wet online, so a decrease in online sales (which they will experience as well) will not be a big deal to them.

What is the take away? This holiday is going to be much worse than e-tailers predicted, and this is going to further injure the pure-plays and hasten the ascent of the brick-and-clicks.

Re: A Dynamic Moment for E-tailing
Posted by: David Porter 2001-09-22 12:17:27 In reply to: Paul A. Greenberg
Regarding Mr. Greenberg's concerns about consumer behavior, a cross-section of 1000 Americans were recently asked the following question: "If nobody in your family could be home to receive home-delivered goods, would you be likely to even order them in the first place?" -- 78.6% said NO!

[Complete survey results found at www.fastlaundry.com/ipsos-reid.htm]

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