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The top technology company of the 80s was IBM, 90s was Microsoft, last decade Apple. No company made it across more than one decade as the top company and the trend was away from IT -- IBM -- and toward the consumer/buyer, suggesting that RIM's refocus on IT is clearly pushing upstream.
What is also interesting is that the 80s' IBM and last decade's Apple were vertically integrated companies, while Microsoft's world was like what founded the industrial revolution -- one of specialization and, in this case, outsourced software.
Nokia has no way of emerging to the top. If any thing it will be a market split between Google and Apple with Microsoft in a distant third and Nokia as other! The platform Nokia uses is lets be honest, garbage. Unless the strike a crazy deal with Google, Nokia is on the way of RIM.
I'll be honest, I don't see how Nokia has much of a successful path going forward. The massive Microsoft marketing push in the last year for Windows mobile led to a decrease in their market share. How do they go forward successfully from that building on a platform that is not successful? Not sure they can really rebuild on past success.
Amazon has a lot better chance at competing just by virtue of being a convenient payment option (everybody has credit cards stored on Amazon and can easily consume their content) so they at least have some path going forward.